Simulation of Rainfall Erosivity Dynamics in Romania under Climate Change Scenarios

Soil erosion is triggered by rainfall through the detachment of soil particles and their transport downslope, playing a key role in models. Together with vegetation cover, temporal dynamic factor, inducing corresponding time variations rates. Under current climate change, also changing its characteristics our study aimed to reveal whether these changes will significantly affect erosivity Romania, implicitly erosion. To achieve this purpose, we developed statistical non-parametric model for predicting on basis modified Fournier index applied it future precipitation evolution scenarios. The data were extracted from CHESLA database Romanian territory two change contrasting scenarios (RCP 4.5 8.5). Average predictions five selected models used order minimize prediction uncertainty. results show that likely increase, at least during 2041–2060 period, especially south-western, western eastern part country, which may cause increase rates, an average 1–2 t ha−1 yr−1. During 2061–2080 decrease central Romania.